Client: Fife Capital State: NSW AEC were engaged by FIFE Capital to provide a proposal to provide valuation advice to support development of a VPA offer for negotiations with City of Parramatta (Council). It is understood a planning proposal seeks to rezone a site on Kirby Street, Rydalmere from IN1 General Residential to R4 High Density Residential. Several density options are currently being considered. In order to complete the requirements of the brief, AEC undertook a number of tasks, broadly structured in two parts. The first part was a comparison of site value comparing the base case to proposal case. The second part was determining the appropriate contribution in Voluntary Planning Agreements Policy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to an all-time low of 1.25% in June, the first change in the cash rate in over two years. RBA Governor Phillip Lowe has indicated that further rate cuts are likely to stimulate domestic employment in a continuing low inflation environment. The RBA meets again next week. Markets are currently expecting official interest rates to fall below 1.0%, and some economists are suggesting the central bank will also undertake some form of quantitative easing to prevent a recession. Domestic activity remains very subdued, with the housing sector still in the doldrums and retail trade stagnant. Globally, there are downside risks to the global economic outlook as trade concerns between the US and China intensify. However, the US is experiencing solid economic growth with strong wages growth resulting from very low levels of unemployment. As a consequence, official interest rates in the US have continued to rise and are now notably higher than Australia at 2.25%-2.5% which has placed ongoing pressure on the Australian dollar as international investors seek out higher yields. Official Interest Rates, US and Australia (%) Notes: The neutral interest rate line shows the upper boundary of the RBA’s estimate of the neutral interest rate band. Sources: RBA (2019a), RBA (2017), IFM Investors (2017). The RBA has indicated that it will be closely monitoring Australian labour market conditions in setting interest rates, with an implied target for the unemployment rate of 4.5%-5.0% which is below the current rate of 5.1% and wages growth needing to improve for inflation to increase from current levels to be within the target range of 2%-3%. Considering the balance of recent economic data and forward projections, it is reasonable to conclude there remains spare capacity within the labour market and as such it is highly likely the next move from the RBA will be a further rate cut. The RBA will next meet on 2 July 2019. Financial markets are anticipating up to 2 more 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year. Combined with the mooted regime of tax cuts by the Australian Government, this will provide part of the necessary stimulus to keep the economy from deteriorating further although additional action will likely be required.

Client: Cairns Council State: QLD Understanding the future scale and demographic composition of the local population is an important component of strategic planning. It is essential infrastructure planning and services provision proactively accommodates the population potential to facilitate and support anticipated growth. Cairns local government area has experienced volatile population growth in recent years due to the strong relationship between economic outcomes and net migration outcomes. In 2008, Cairns was one of the strongest growing local government areas in Queensland (in terms of population growth). However, population growth slowed considerably following the onset of the Global Financial Crisis, as construction and tourism activity in the region softened significantly. State government estimates for Cairns local government area suggest a lower rate of growth in the local population between 2016 and 2041 than had been recorded in the 2006 to 2017 period. AEC was engaged by Cairns Regional Council to develop a detailed set of population projections to sense check these projections. Population projections were developed by age and sex for the five yearly periods between 2016 and 2041. These projections considered future trends in local fertility and mortality rates as well as Carin’s potential future net migration profile. AEC also analysed the potential population impacts associated with planned construction activity for the region in the short to medium term. The resulting projections were in line with those developed by the Queensland Statisticians Office, suggesting the population could increase at an average annual rate of 1.6% between 2016 and 2041.

Client: Wonbindi Coal Pty Ltd State: QLD Mount Ramsay Coal Company proposed to develop an open cut coal mine producing approximately 5 million tonnes per annum of pulverised coal injection (PCI) coal over a mining life of approximately 20 years. AEC were engaged to develop an economic assessment as a technical document for use in preparing an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the project. The report quantified the expected beneficial and adverse economic impacts of the project on the regional and state economies, as well as cumulative impacts in consideration of other major projects. The report also recommended mitigation strategies to ensure regional economic values are enhanced or, at least, maintained if the project proceeds. Existing economic conditions were examined using available data and desktop research. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling techniques were used to assess the economic impacts to the regional economy. Cost Benefit Analysis and qualitative analysis of project impacts using a likelihood-consequence assessment framework was also used.

Client: Royal Flying Doctors Service State: QLD AEC was engaged by the Royal Flying Doctors Service to develop an economic analysis for the potential development of a new aeromedical based at the Mount Isa airport. AEC undertook Input-Output modelling and Cost Benefit Assessment to understand the potential impacts the development would bring to the North West Queensland community. The findings of the report were used to support a Building Better Regions Funding application.

Client: Regional Development Australia (Sydney) State: NSW Access to transport is a key enabler of access to education, health services and employment opportunities. Transport networks and accessibility also impact on the current and future level of skills demanded compared to the level of skills supplied in different areas. In order to understand the degree of equitable access to transport within Western Sydney, AEC spatially analysed the presence of public transport options for each SA1 within the region and determined whether transport access had any correlation with socio-economic advantage or disadvantage. In addition, AEC analysed the existing occupational mix both in terms of local workers and local residents. This enabled identification of key occupations which are currently imported. Future occupational demands were also estimated to enable a understanding of potential future trends.

Client: Gladstone Regional Council State: QLD AEC was commissioned by Gladstone Regional Council to provide independent advice on the appropriateness of Gladstone Area Water Board's submission to the Queensland Competition Authority's 2020-25 price monitoring review which essentially sets the bulk water prices that ratepayers need to pay during the 5-year period. The assessment included the proposed price increase, appropriateness of expenditure claims, the return on capital applied, the form of regulation and regulatory pricing period, cost to service Council vs industrial customers, recovery of historic revenue shortfalls and pricing review triggers.

Client: Logan City Council State: QLD There are very few regional centres in Australia that can justify a stand-alone performing arts or entertainment centre. Due to the projected 2.4% annual growth of Logan’s population by 2036 and the recorded occasions where events have exceeded supply capacity, speculation exists on the potential feasibility of a standalone or multi-purpose convention/ exhibition centre. Council engaged AEC to assist Ranbury in the development of a Needs Assessment and Pre-Feasibility Analysis for a convention/ exhibition centre. AEC’s work involved a socio-demographic analysis, review of the MICE market and key demand drivers, a gap and competitor analysis, estimates of future MICE demand, analysis and recommendations of governance structures and operating models, financial analysis and risk assessment. Key findings revealed the immediate demand for civic, cultural, sporting, business and community events are generally well catered for within the current facilities and infrastructure of Logan City. However, there is evidence to support a future requirement within the period of 5-10 years for the development of either a new purpose built (or expanded), metro-scale multipurpose convention/ exhibition centre. Under all scenarios, a proposed convention/ exhibition centre would generate an operating deficit. Hence the future direction of the study is to identify if the community benefits outweigh the financial cost, identify a specific site to allow for a more specific capital cost estimate and to undertake a more rigorous demand assessment.

Client: Local Government Association of Queensland State: QLD The LGAQ commissioned AEC to undertake a comparative analysis of rating practices and methodologies for resources and renewable energy sector projects in Council areas significantly influenced by such activity, with the objective of guiding Councils in establishing appropriate rating structures to recover the significant costs imposed on Councils by these sectors while ensuring the rating structures in place are equitable and transparent.

Client: Royal Flying Doctors Service State: QLD AEC was engaged by the Royal Flying Doctors Service to develop an economic analysis for the potential development of a new aeromedical based at the Mount Isa airport. AEC undertook Input-Output modelling and Cost Benefit Assessment to understand the potential impacts the development would bring to the North West Queensland community. The findings of the report were used to support a Building Better Regions Funding application.

Client: Fraser Coast Regional Council State: QLD FCRC proposed to develop land at the Hervey Bay Airport to create the Avion Airside Precinct. AEC were engaged to develop a business case for the project, examining the need for the project, the socio-economic benefits the project will deliver to the regional economy and communities, and the financial impacts to Council of project delivery. A cost benefit analysis was also provided, outlining the net benefit of the project to the region. The analysis is specifically designed to support funding submissions for the project. Input-Output modelling techniques were used to assess the economic impacts associated with the projects construction, as well as impacts from operation of businesses moving to the precinct and increased airport activity. Other socio-economic benefits delivered by the project not appropriately captured by the Input-Output modelling were examined qualitatively. The cost benefit analysis was undertaken in line with Queensland and Australian Government guidelines for project evaluation.

Client: Penrith City Council State: NSW AEC was commissioned by Penrith City Council to carry out Residential Development Feasibility Analysis to understand if the current FSR and building height controls under the Penrith Local Environment Plan 2010 facilitate feasible development within the St Marys Town Centre. AEC carried out a detailed property market appraisal and tested a number of sample sites selected by Council to understand the commercial viability of development under existing planning controls. AEC provided a set of recommendations (both planning and non-planning) to improve the market viability of residential development within the St Marys Town Centre. The findings from the Feasibility Analysis assisted Penrith City Council in their review of the Penrith LEP