Australia has set a legislated target to reach net zero emissions by 2050. However, its current level of emissions remains high for a developed nation on a per-capita basis. While emissions have shown a downward trend over the last decade, the rate of decline is not yet consistent with a linear pathway to net zero by 2050. The government's current policy focus is on its 2030 target as a critical stepping stone. So how is our progress towards the 2030 target? As of September 2023, Australia's emissions (463 Mt) are 24% below 2005 levels. To meet the 2030 target of a 43% reduction, emissions need to fall by an additional 115 million tonnes in just over six years. The Federal government's projections suggest that with current policies, Australia is on track to meet and potentially exceed its 2030 target, forecasting a reduction of 42% by 2030. This progress sounds great to the general population and we all feel that we are pulling our weight when it comes to Climate Change and willing to bear some pain in the hip pocket through higher electricity prices and the like. However when you dig a little deeper it becomes evident that Australia's official emissions reports show that the most significant reductions in carbon emissions come from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. When you exclude land-based sequestration (natural and human-induced), Australia's gross emissions have remained stubbornly high and are declining very slowly. The significant drop in  net emissions  you often see is largely due to CO₂ being absorbed by forests and land management, not due to deep cuts in pollution from fossil fuels. Gross Emissions vs. Net Emissions It's essential to understand the two ways emissions are reported in Australia: Gross Emissions (a.k.a. "All sectors excluding LULUCF"): This is the total CO₂-e released directly into the atmosphere from all human activities without subtracting any carbon absorbed by the land sector. This includes energy (electricity, transport, industry), agriculture, industrial processes, and waste. Net Emissions (the official headline number): This is Gross Emissions  minus  the carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere by the LULUCF sector (e.g., forests regrowing).   So we should ask the question is  Australia's Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) carbon accounting accurate or even appropriate? Technically, yes. The calculations are done using a world-class system and follow complex international accounting rules to the letter. However, pragmatically and ethically, the answer is often no. The outcome is seen as misleading because it portrays Australia as a climate leader for largely:  Stopping a damaging practice (land clearing) that was rampant in 1990s. Claiming credit for natural regrowth as managed human action.  Not accounting for major reversals like catastrophic bushfires. The result is a significant gap between the "accounting reality" (a large and growing carbon sink that makes net emissions look good) and the "physical reality" (a continent with ecosystems vulnerable to climate change and an economy that remains one of the world's highest per-capita emitters from fossil fuels. This is why analysts often urge looking at "emissions excluding LULUCF" to understand the real pace of decarbonisation in Australia's energy, industry, and transport systems. So in the context of the Federal Governments policy we should really be focussing on Gross Emissions as this is what all the billions of dollars is being spent on in an effort to turn the dial on reducing carbon emissions. Australia's Current Gross Emissions Level Using the latest data for the year to September 2023 (DCCEEW): Gross Emissions (excluding LULUCF): 546 Million tonnes of CO₂-e (Mt CO₂-e) Net Emissions (including LULUCF): 463 Mt CO₂-e This means land-based sequestration offset 83 Mt CO₂-e in that year. Over the past 15-20 years, while net emissions have fallen by ~26%, gross emissions have only decreased by a modest 6% since 2005. This indicates that the vast majority of Australia's reported progress is not from cleaning up industry and energy, but from the carbon being absorbed by the landscape. What This Means for Net Zero This analysis reveals the core challenge for Australia's path to  genuine  net zero: An Economy Still Addicted to Fossil Fuels: The gross emissions figure of 546 Mt CO₂-e shows that the core engine of the Australian economy—energy, transport, industry, and agriculture—is still heavily reliant on processes that release greenhouse gases. The Offset Risk: Heavy reliance on land sequestration is a risk. This sink is not guaranteed forever. It can be reversed by events like bushfires, drought, and changes in land management, which would cause net emissions to spike. True decarbonisation requires reducing gross emissions. The 2030 Target Recalculated: The official 2030 target is a 43% reduction from 2005  net  emissions levels (from 610 Mt to ~348 Mt). The 2005 gross emissions level was 583 Mt CO₂-e. Therefore, to be on a robust path to net zero  without relying on future land sequestration , Australia would need to reduce its gross emissions from 546 Mt today to a small fraction of that by 2050. The 2030 milestone on this gross emissions pathway would require much more aggressive action. A Different Perspective Metric Including Sequestration (Net) Excluding Sequestration (Gross) Current Level (2023) 463 Mt CO₂-e 546 Mt CO₂-e Change since 2005 -24% -6% Primary Driver of Trend Growth in forest carbon stores Slow uptake of renewables, efficiency gains In summary, excluding carbon sequestered by land and trees shows that Australia's fundamental emissions problem is largely unchanged. The nation has made a start, particularly in the electricity sector, but the decarbonisation of its industry, transport, and agricultural systems has barely begun and the population are already feeling the economic pain. Reaching net zero by 2050 will require a monumental effort to radically reduce this 546 Mt CO₂-e of annual gross emissions. The alternative solution which is staring the Federal Government in the face is to rely on nature to continue cleaning up a significant portion of the problem, and invest more in LULUCF practices and technologies and then it would be appropriate to use Net Emissions as the scoreboard in the move towards Net Zero. Some of these LULUCF programs could include: There are strong fundamentals for the cultivation of saltbush as a method to capture carbon dioxide for carbon credits. Research on saltbush's carbon sequestration estimates 2 tons per hectare per year and it can be successfully grown in saline, low-productivity areas of Australia. Link this with remote and Indigenous community development programs and we can realise long term synergies. Among the best species in CO 2  absorption are tropical species, such as:  Teak , which has some of the highest carbon sequestration capacity among trees.  In a time of soaring house construction costs shouldn’t we consider turning to forestry plantations as both a viable capture of carbon dioxide and then when harvested and used in housing as a long term store of that carbon dioxide. Imagine what we can do with construction costs if those carbon reduction program funds were reallocated to forestry programs. In the wet tropics we can cultivate bamboo which absorbs 5 times more greenhouse gases and produces 35% more oxygen than an equivalent volume of trees. It has a very important CO2 retention capacity since one hectare of  bamboo grove  can capture up to 60 tons of CO2 each year and when harvested can be used in construction and furniture industries again providing a long term store of that carbon dioxide.   Australia has a long history in forestry and agricultural production. This history provides a key lesson for Government in how to tackle our carbon emissions and reach net zero. Carey Ramm Principal Economist AEC Group

Client: Asia-Pacific Economic Corporation (APEC) The Cruise ship sector is considered one of the most rapid growing segments in the tourism industry. Given the rise of the cruise industry activity in the APEC region, data to analyse the economics of cruise tourism is vital, especially data that focuses on communities as the recipients of economic benefits. The project will provide a study on cruise tourism’s effect on local communities, more specifically, MSMEs in local communities in APEC economies and how the income generated from the cruise sector leads to better standards of living for local people. Project outcomes and recommendations will be used to support further strategic sustainable development of cruise tourism and to identify opportunities to increase positive impacts and safeguard the livelihoods of local economies. Whilst the project is working closely with just five economies, the findings and recommendations will have benefits for all 21 APEC members. The workshop in Singapore was attended by representatives from Australia, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Mexico, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam as well as a number of expert speakers including: Cruise Line International Association, Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, Cruise Broome and Genting Cruise Lines. For further information regarding developing the cruise sector please contact simon.smith@aecgroupltd.com

Client: Transport for NSW State: NSW AEC is delighted to have worked with the project team on the Parramatta Light Rail in delivering integrated land use planning advice on this $1 billion project. NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian unveiled the project’s preferred route to service 16 proposed stops from Westmead to Carlingford via the Parramatta CBD. The Parramatta Light Rail is set to transform the transport needs of people living in Western Sydney. Construction on the first stage is scheduled to begin next year and is expected to open in 2023. Full details on the announcement can be seen at: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/parramatta-light-rail-route-revealed-but-olympic-park-not-included-20170217-guff06.html

Client: Cairns Council State: QLD Understanding the future scale and demographic composition of the local population is an important component of strategic planning. It is essential infrastructure planning and services provision proactively accommodates the population potential to facilitate and support anticipated growth. Cairns local government area has experienced volatile population growth in recent years due to the strong relationship between economic outcomes and net migration outcomes. In 2008, Cairns was one of the strongest growing local government areas in Queensland (in terms of population growth). However, population growth slowed considerably following the onset of the Global Financial Crisis, as construction and tourism activity in the region softened significantly. State government estimates for Cairns local government area suggest a lower rate of growth in the local population between 2016 and 2041 than had been recorded in the 2006 to 2017 period. AEC was engaged by Cairns Regional Council to develop a detailed set of population projections to sense check these projections. Population projections were developed by age and sex for the five yearly periods between 2016 and 2041. These projections considered future trends in local fertility and mortality rates as well as Carin’s potential future net migration profile. AEC also analysed the potential population impacts associated with planned construction activity for the region in the short to medium term. The resulting projections were in line with those developed by the Queensland Statisticians Office, suggesting the population could increase at an average annual rate of 1.6% between 2016 and 2041.

Client: Sunshine Coast Council State: QLD Ahead of the release of the 2016 Census of Population and Housing data, AEC was engaged by Sunshine Coast Council to update its existing economic profile, covering the quarterly and annual economic and demographic data for the region. The resulting document provided analysis of the size and structure of the economy, population, employment, the property market and the tourism sector. In addition, AEC also provided updated estimates of each of the high value add sectors for the region. Report: https://d1j8a4bqwzee3.cloudfront.net/~/media/Invest/Documents/regional_ecdev_strategy_research_compendium.pdf?la=en

Client: Mackay Council State: QLD Council required a renewed strategic planning process that would provide clear direction and focus for the library service and support the prioritisation of resource allocation based on the expectations and needs of the Mackay Region’s community. The primary purpose of the Strategy was to: • Provide broad observations on the local, regional, national and global trends in the provision of library services; • Consider the input and feedback received from the Mackay community and staff on future library needs; and • To identify any key gaps and initiatives to focus on over the next five years. The first part of the Strategy provided information about the Mackay community, library sector trends and how the library service was performing currently. The second part described the opportunities for the library service with a final part providing a suggested strategic framework that described key themes and activities. Professional standards and benchmarks, including National and State data were used to identify gaps in service provision and create tactics to improve them, thereby reducing the risk of services becoming out of step with their communities and unable to meet demand. Report: https://www.connectingmackay.com.au/39170/documents/86565

Client: NWQROC State: QLD Report: https://www.nwqroc.com.au/assets/Documents/Publications/c89c0dcd86/NWQROC-Regional-Profile-2018.pdf This project involved the development of a regional profile for the North West Queensland Regional Organisation of Councils (NWQROC), focussing on key demographic and economic characteristics, critical focus areas to facilitate economic diversification and sustainable growth outcomes, and the contribution of Councils in the region to infrastructure and service provision. A detailed report was produced, along with a professionally designed 4-page infographic summary.

Client: City of Sydney State: NSW The City of Sydney was investigating implementing an affordable housing scheme to apply to land within the local area, not currently subject to an existing affordable housing scheme. An additional contribution requirement on sites that are subject of changes to the planning controls was also being considered. AEC was commissioned to assist the City of Sydney understand the viability of implementing these affordable housing requirements on development, in addition to how these contributions and resultant affordable housing outcomes compare with targets envisaged in the draft District Plan. AEC undertook profiling of the precincts and generic feasibility testing to examine the financial impacts to development following the inclusion of a ‘standard’ affordable housing levy and potential for a ‘site-specific’ levy, followed by a generic assessment of development tolerance and comparison of affordable housing outcomes with the draft District Plan proposed targets. This led to the identification of: An appropriate contributions rate to apply in residual areas of the city as well as the ‘site specific levy’ Affordable housing outcomes from the contributions rate, site specific levy and affordable housing targets Implications for competitiveness and investment following implementation of an affordable housing contribution requirement.

Client: Moree Plains Shire Council State: NSW AEC was engaged by Moree Plains Shire Council for the completion of a 10-year Economic Development Strategy providing clear direction for driving economic development and innovation. AEC reviewed literature pertinent to the Strategy, undertook a socio-economic and tourism analysis of the region, undertook an opportunity and competitive assessment and analysed macro trends and influencing factors to form the background of the Strategy. To build upon this, AEC facilitated an escape expenditure study, analysed best practise case studies and undertook stakeholder consultation. This led to the development of an overall vision, game changing initiatives, actions and target measures for implementation of the Strategy. Key outcomes targeted were connectivity through rail, road, air and digital; industry diversification; supporting local business and education; realising potential of tourism and supporting population retention and attraction.

Client: Northern Beaches Community Hub Project State: QLD AEC was engaged by Mackay Regional Council to provide a review of the options provided for the proposed Northern Beaches Community Hub. AEC conducted document research and options analysis of the proposed Hub then included recommendations with future steps.

Client: Logan City Council State: QLD AEC was commissioned by Logan City Council to assess whether it should establish a Container Refund Point at its Browns Plans waste facility in response to the Queensland Government's implementation of a container refund scheme, with the assessment incorporating: A review of the proposed scheme, based on the Request for Proposal Documentation, the Waste Reduction and Recycling Amendment Bill 2017 and other available information. Estimation of the potential volume of containers by type that may be received at the Container Refund Point. Assessment of the implications for the land area, infrastructure, plant and equipment required at the Browns Plains waste facility to facilitate the collection and storage of eligible containers and ultimate transportation to end markets for processing. Assessment of the implications for resourcing (including staff requirements) and traffic congestion/vehicle movements. Identification of the benefits and risks that may accrue to Council in receiving eligible containers. Overall recommendation on the viability of establishing a Container Refund Point at the Browns Plains waste facility.

Client: Department of State Development QLD State: QLD As part of the $420 million Advance Queensland initiative, the Queensland Government is creating an environment to foster emerging and priority sectors with global growth potential. The superyacht industry is one of these sectors and will play an important role in diversifying Queenslands economy and ensuring Queensland workers have access to the new jobs of the future. AEC were engaged to develop a five year industry development strategy to drive growth in Queensland's superyacht industry over the next five years. The analysis examined the current industry in Queensland, its strengths, weaknesses and competitive advantages, as well as key areas required to facilitate and realise growth potential. Strategies and actions for four priority action areas were developed to drive growth over the next five years.